A combination of climate and global economic impacts mean dairy farmers are facing a particularly challenging winter, but careful planning now can help
ensure margins are optimised and shocks minimised.
A combination of climate and global economic impacts mean dairy farmers are facing a particularly challenging winter, but careful planning now can help ensure margins are optimised and shocks minimised. Developing and monitoring a plan is the best way to have as successful a winter as possible and reduce risk as the season unfolds.
While milk prices are showing signs of improvement, the market remains volatile and exposed to global factors. At the same time, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East shows no signs of easing and continues to disrupt feed commodity markets, while stocks of key ingredients have been affected by global growing conditions.
Commodities and straights are gaining in price and in some cases the availability is not there. The combination of these market conditions means it will be vital to assess the impact on margins and the value of marginal litres.
Where is the optimum point to maximise margins? Do you gamble on markets improving or take a more conservative approach based on cost control?
This picture is made more complicated by forage supply. Initial forage analysis results for first and second cuts suggest considerable variations in quality, but the big issue is quantity.
Not only were harvest yields reduced in many parts of the country, but the drought conditions decimated mid-season grazing, meaning that many clamps have already been opened, putting more pressure on winter stocks. Maize crops have been affected by the drought in many parts of the country, which will affect yields as crops die back quicker. Dry conditions at the grain fill stage will also impact starch content.
Faced with this situation, the sooner a plan is made to manage forage stocks, the easier it will be to get through the winter.
Start with a realistic assessment
The starting point is to make a realistic assessment of silage stocks working in dry matter (DM) terms. Use an analysis for each clamp to determine the total DM available and allow for 5% DM wastage over the winter. How does the total DM available compare with what you would usually feed and how can you manage the consequences?
Forage
For example, a herd of 200 cows fed for 180 days and usually fed 12kg DM of forage per day would require 432,000kg DM in total. If total available forage is 396,000kg DM you would be able to feed only 11kg DM per cow per day. If 360,000kg DM were available, then cows would be restricted to 10kg DM/day. Any reduction in forage availability will have implications for yields and margins. It is important to understand what stocks are available as soon as possible, to understand the implications and to plan accordingly. Smaller changes at the start of the winter will help avoid more radical changes later in the season, which could have bigger consequences. Reduced forage intakes will have implications for supplementation and feed costs. Care will need to be taken to ensure rumen health is maintained with a lower proportion of forage in the diet, and energy and protein sources will need to be adjusted. To help control feed costs it might pay to look to reduce total protein fed and balance diets with amino acids.
The key question will be what target yield should be set? Will it pay to push for higher yields if feed costs will be higher or can margins be optimised by feeding for slightly reduced yields? It might be that fresh-calvers are pushed harder and supplementation reduced more in mid- and late lactation when cows are back in-calf. At least having the discussion will ensure you know what to expect.
Review cow numbers
Another part of the plan should be to review cow numbers. If forage stocks are low then feeding fewer animals may be an option to reserve forage for the remaining cows.
Taking our example of 200 cows being fed 12kg DM/day for 180 days and needing 432,000kg DM for the winter, every 21,600kg DM deficit would require 10 fewer cows to be kept to allow intakes per cow to be maintained.
On all dairy farms there will be cows scheduled for culling. Making a decision to reduce cow numbers sooner could allow the remaining cows to be fed without forage restrictions and could have other benefits.
Selling culls sooner will give cashflow a boost. Reducing cow numbers will also increase feed space and lying space for the remaining cows.
Carrying fewer cows could also reduce milking times, especially if cow numbers are matched to parlour capacity, avoiding the issue of having the parlour running when not fully utilised.
Reducing milking times will save electricity costs and release labour for other tasks, or even give team members more of a break.
Youngstock
In addition to assessing cow numbers, it is worth reviewing if youngstock numbers can be reduced, releasing more forage for milking cows .Do so many replacements need to be kept? There is no easy answer to getting through the winter, given all the challenges being faced. However, the worst thing you can do is to not plan as soon as possible. The sooner you can assess the options and determine the best approach, the better for your herd and business. Then monitor the plan and react as the season unfolds.
Written by Andy Haggerty – TBA Ltd